Cuba’s main exports are…
More Than 50 Years of Experience… and Unfortunately, it Shows !
…dictatorship, impoverishment, misery, and … staying power!
There is no question…Maduro’s misgovernment of Venezuela would not have survived without Cuban advice. Cuban Fidel Castro had Venezuela as an objective, as early as the 60s.
Reputedly, Cuba was behind the so-called Carupanazo, on May 4th, 1962, a military uprising by leftist troops of the Marine Infantry Batallion #3, stationed in the coastal city of Carupano, located at the east of Venezuela, which was rapidly defeated by troops loyal to the then democratically elected President Romulo Betancourt; loyal troops were sent from the military garrisons of Barquisimeto and Valencia.
A month later, on June 4th, 1962, that leftist military uprising was followed by another uprising of a larger scale, again by the Marine Infantry, this time the force stationed in the city of Puerto Cabello. The uprising, known as El Porteñazo, was also put down by pro-government military forces, when on June 6th, airplanes from the Aviation Army, loyal to the democratically elected President Romulo Betancourt, bombed the Solano Castle, point of operations of the rebel forces, occasioning their rendition. In all, the military uprising caused a larger number of casualties: 80 deaths, according to official sources, and more than 400 deaths, and 700 people injured, between civilian and military personnel, as reported by Wikipedia.
Evidently, Cuban advisors to Maduro have plenty of experience: against parades and guarimbas (street’s blockages)?…their advice? ... terrorize the population with savage, indiscriminate violence and killing of a few protesters; locate sniper shooters atop buildings surrounding parades; widespread Police actions; GNB, and Colectivos’ violence; widespread imprisonment of captured demonstrators, with no rights of any kind; make life very hard for key leaders and their families (Leopoldo Lopez and his family; Antonio Ledezma and family).
Against institutions they can’t control? … create parallel ones, install your people on them, transferring to the newly created false institution powers and budgets from true institutions (e.g.: Those democratically elected ones), as ‘Chavistas’ did with Caracas’ Mayor, the Venezuelan Supreme Court, and the so-called Constitutional Assembly.
Against naive international clamor for negotiations? … fake negotiations with true Opposition leaders first, then with international mediation. When the true Opposition majority does not believe in negotiations anymore?…fake ‘negotiations’ with minority Opposition’s political parties, which probably have been infiltrated in advance.
If new ‘clean’ elections are asked for?… replace current electoral authorities with new friendlier names that allow another electoral fraud.
What the ‘Chavistas’ will probably do next?: New electoral fraud, which will replace ‘hostile’ National Assembly’s current representatives, with ‘legal’ friendly representatives, defusing Guaidó’s threat.
If true Opposition participates in the rigged upcoming elections? they will surely lose the election by ample margin and later will claim fraud. But that does not matter. Effectively, nothing will happen. It won’t be the first time that electoral fraud is committed by the ‘Chavistas’.
If they decide not to participate in the election?… fine, then the ‘Chavistas’-only National Assembly will be an easy reality.
No doubt. The experienced Cuban ‘hand’ is behind those moves.
So, time passes on. And the ‘Chavistas’ already have been in power in Venezuela for more than 20 years.
Meanwhile, the Venezuelans have been waiting, queuing, suffering, and waiting for something to happen… in vain!
In fact, it looks like nothing will happen. ‘Friendly’ countries reject military intervention options. But, it appears to me highly unlikely that the ‘Chavistas’ will leave power in Venezuela without the use of force.
Nothing will happen, other than favorable moves of the pragmatic ‘Chavistas’, of course with Cuban advice.
So, what to do next?
A guerrilla? Venezuelan Orography does not favor a successful guerrilla-type war. In fact, the then Venezuelan Government easily terminated the leftist guerrilla movement of the ‘60s, of which Teodoro Petkoff, Douglas Bravo, Pompeyo Marquez, Americo Martín, Fabricio Ojeda, and others, were part in the early '60s.
That movement was more successful when it moved underground and into urban guerrilla.
I remember being a child and going to the movies with caution, as the guerrilla was detonating bombs in cinemas in Caracas.
In fact, I’m surprised that Venezuelans have preferred to emigrate in droves, even walking long distances, and with no resources.
The power of fear, I assume.
But, let’s face it, the ‘Chavistas’ have made of Venezuela a country very difficult to live in: No food, no potable water, no electricity, no medicines, public hospitals in ruins, widespread police&military violence, documents only at a price, there is not currency bills, and inflation is the highest in the world, crime and corruption everywhere.
But the truth is that, barring foreign military intervention (for which there is apparently no appetite), underground movements, and urban guerrilla warfare, seem to be the only options open to Venezuelans. Other than emigrating, of course.
Emigration is very convenient to the “revolution”, as the Venezuelan migrants will send million of precious Dollars to their relatives who stayed in the country.
While the Colombian and Brazilian borders are still open, of course.
Mind you, the ‘Chavistas’ will close both borders any time now.
Remember the Cuban Mariel, and what happened next?